Ronald Rogowski, Commerce and Coalitions (1990), Chapters 1, 4.

Just read the article length piece.

Summary: The _Stolper and Samuelson_ model leads to the conclusion that exogenous changes in the risks or costs of countries’ external trad will stimulate domestic conflict between owners of locally scarce and locally abundant factors. A three factor model then predicts quit specific coalitions and cleavages among owners of land, labor, and capital, depending only on the given country’s level of economic development and its land-labor ratio. This doesn’t explain everything, but it warrants further investigation.


Land-Labor Ratio

* High

** Advanced Economy (Capital & Land Abundant, Labor Scarce)

*** Class cleavage:

**** Land and capital free-trading, assertive

**** Labor defensive, protectionist

** Backward Economy (Land Abundant, Capital & Labor Scarce)

*** Urban-Rural cleavage:

**** Land free-trading, assertive

**** Labor and capital defensive, protectionist

**** _U.S. Populism_


* Low

** Advanced Economy (Capital & Labor Abundant, Land Scarce)

***Urban-Rural cleavage:

**** Capital and labor free-trading, assertive

**** Land defensive, protectionist

**** _(Radicalism)_

** Backward Economy (Labor Abundant, Capital & Land Scarce)

*** Class cleavage:

**** Labor free-trading, assertive

**** Land and capital defensive, protectionist

**** _Socialism